MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fa564aba8571c87e52f22028e029f5c55c173e3150a36a1384c90fbc0548c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 141,720$72,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,256.4 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 49c | 100,000$49,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,000 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 49c | 24,660$12,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,576.37 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa285…f906backed Over | 50c | 14,000$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,000 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 8,997$4,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,637.4 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 51c | 7,703$3,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,928.64 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 50c | 5,619$2,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,809.5 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 5,281$3,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.08 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 4,162$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.87 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 57c | 2,880$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.31 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 2,350$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.99 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 49c | 2,287$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.47 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,021$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.71 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 955.16$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.32 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 51c | 888$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.88 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 240 | 59.2%142 W · 98 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 403.75$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.93 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 51c | 389.79$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.99 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 54c | 352.33$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.07 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 57c | 291.29$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 57c | 288.31$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 48c | 211.31$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.86 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 53c | 149.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 57c | 148.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 57c | 148.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 139.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 137$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 51c | 119$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 43c | 116.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 59c | 112.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 49c | 102.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 92.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 51c | 81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 79c | 76.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 53c | 40.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 49c | 40.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 416 | 48.8%203 W · 213 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 35.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…594dbacked Over | 57c | 28.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Over | 54c | 27.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 54c | 23.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 50c | 20.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -9.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle MarinersChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.