Mls · resolved market
Atlanta United FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fda24b7cefa0d322a6258c693b6ca159aa7cece44b7f8f03e64a9a615834fd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Over | 47c | 4,560$2,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142.97 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 3,890$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.51 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.98 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 25c | 1,745$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.78 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 73c | 1,402$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.37 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 21c | 852.1$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.71 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 17c | 709.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Over | 46c | 680$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.8 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 351.96$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.45 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 32c | 192$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 55c | 162$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 21c | 151.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 131.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 46c | 124.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdc…9b4cbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 77c | 79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 35c | 68.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 57c | 67.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 24c | 64.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 59.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 54.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 66c | 51.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Under | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 49c | 42.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 37c | 39.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea97…5ac0backed Under | 49c | 36.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 45c | 28.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 46c | 27.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 46c | 26.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 47c | 23.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 78c | 22.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…e42cbacked Under | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44dc…802dbacked Under | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…9426backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta United FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5this page
- Atlanta United FC vs. New York Red Bulls: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. New York Red Bulls: Atlanta United FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atlanta United FC vs. New York Red Bulls: New York Red Bulls O/U 2.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.