CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ff18e39e44c8ff436d96e575b65fe1f791ad07d820a2d3deb9156bea0b39c32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 3c | 939.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 51c | 291.59$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.88 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…48c0backed Over | 50c | 199.49$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd437…738fbacked Under | 52c | 199.13$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a3…1d0abacked Over | 48c | 194.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…437abacked Over | 48c | 183.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…e813backed Under | 52c | 178.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…456fbacked Under | 57c | 176.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 125 | 68.8%86 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Under | 50c | 135.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 118.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Under | 51c | 109.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…1712backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 277 | 35.7%99 W · 178 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…bba1backed Over | 49c | 82.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 228 | 43.9%100 W · 128 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 52c | 72.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…1363backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Over | 37c | 63.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Over | 38c | 63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 44c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 49c | 56.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 32c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -14.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…d199backed Over | 51c | 49.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…38b1backed Over | 50c | 48.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…6e03backed Under | 56c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…93adbacked Under | 61c | 45.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Under | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Over | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…6dfdbacked Over | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd7…ca6bbacked Under | 56c | 35.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…6b82backed Under | 56c | 35.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…f634backed Over | 51c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…03a0backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow PlayoffsSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.