TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, REKONIX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,043
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,715

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,043 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x164d…bdb3backed REKONIX10c10,316$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-68.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed REKONIX35c8,966$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.716256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nigma Galaxy74c5,027$3,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.5196645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Nigma Galaxy66c3,020$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.725549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Nigma Galaxy71c2,568$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.189946.5%46 W · 53 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed REKONIX27c2,391$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.861,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed Nigma Galaxy75c2,258$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.629555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed REKONIX24c2,217$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.139837.8%37 W · 61 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2a…9c0abacked REKONIX32c2,100$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.314238.1%16 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked REKONIX26c1,496$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.2369835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy73c1,449$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.082,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed REKONIX25c1,433$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.1981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf7…a506backed REKONIX30c1,385$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.43237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc59f…954ebacked Nigma Galaxy73c1,343$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.115238.5%20 W · 32 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Nigma Galaxy63c1,319$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.61,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Nigma Galaxy71c1,152$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.066144.3%27 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6d2…86e7backed REKONIX36c1,056$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.121540%6 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x483a…01d6backed Nigma Galaxy64c1,031$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.257545.3%34 W · 41 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd4f…6407backed REKONIX60c996.79$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nigma Galaxy64c994.28$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.942,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdfa…7491backed REKONIX32c930.85$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006544.6%29 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb0…f493backed Nigma Galaxy80c878.45$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.452166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nigma Galaxy66c700$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2381,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed REKONIX30c598.79$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6423347.2%110 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nigma Galaxy73c549.29$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.71,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Nigma Galaxy78c519$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.947954.4%43 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Nigma Galaxy78c501.09$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.917439.2%29 W · 45 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Nigma Galaxy65c499.92$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.971,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Nigma Galaxy74c484.47$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12614854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed Nigma Galaxy64c468.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.7524255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Nigma Galaxy70c457.14$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.1415147.7%72 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed REKONIX46c431.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20055457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Nigma Galaxy66c429.72$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.110546.7%49 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked REKONIX27c420.23$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7553139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked REKONIX28c407.14$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11426843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Nigma Galaxy66c400$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1351,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked REKONIX26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10059254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb1…4ed2backed Nigma Galaxy70c374$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed REKONIX21c348.11$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9771342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked REKONIX38c340$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.654058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ae8…7025backed REKONIX35c330$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.31618.8%3 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.29per pick48cpaid-59.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xecc2…6ff9backed REKONIX36c325.64$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Nigma Galaxy76c316$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0466947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed Nigma Galaxy68c308$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.325747.4%27 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked REKONIX24c302$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.48633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Nigma Galaxy71c300$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7436138.2%138 W · 223 L-20.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed REKONIX27c292$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.844436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f74…7c8abacked Nigma Galaxy64c279.83$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nigma Galaxy72c278.5$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.331,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed Nigma Galaxy73c272.6$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.66058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf1…c324backed REKONIX19c269.32$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.83633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Nigma Galaxy65c258.83$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6920740.1%83 W · 124 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Nigma Galaxy65c250$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.574549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Nigma Galaxy73c244.75$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.861,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…7b60backed REKONIX26c233.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6202…8872backed Nigma Galaxy79c211.49$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2312054.2%65 W · 55 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed REKONIX23c210.43$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.891,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Nigma Galaxy65c202.65$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9367555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed Nigma Galaxy60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Nigma Galaxy64c198.44$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4451550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Nigma Galaxy63c197.98$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.251,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Nigma Galaxy66c186$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.291145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5e…75a4backed REKONIX36c182.1$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.25714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-70.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Nigma Galaxy56c177.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed REKONIX27c168.76$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1823342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked REKONIX26c166.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4433945.1%153 W · 186 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed Nigma Galaxy67c162.9$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5411150.5%56 W · 55 L+14.2wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed REKONIX27c160.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3319857.1%113 W · 85 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4484…9defbacked Nigma Galaxy66c160$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.46560%39 W · 26 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e2b…19a4backed REKONIX24c158.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.024211.9%5 W · 37 L-9.6wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-71.9%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x17cb…edaabacked Nigma Galaxy64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Nigma Galaxy70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4570052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Nigma Galaxy64c148$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.283764.9%24 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed Nigma Galaxy72c147.58$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.323969.2%27 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked REKONIX28c138.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.184557.8%26 W · 19 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+28.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed Nigma Galaxy65c129$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.151258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed REKONIX25c128.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.121,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb308…23a6backed REKONIX41c124.39$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5116939.6%67 W · 102 L-15.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Nigma Galaxy70c119.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.441,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed Nigma Galaxy67c117$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.61425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-62.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Nigma Galaxy74c107.66$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8926540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4471…3f7bbacked REKONIX29c105.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.531838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked Nigma Galaxy74c105$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.321253.8%114 W · 98 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed REKONIX29c103.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306744.8%30 W · 37 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed REKONIX28c102.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8227357.1%156 W · 117 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Nigma Galaxy77c100.39$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.394353.5%23 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed Nigma Galaxy60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404738.3%18 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Nigma Galaxy66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3443049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35e…4a6bbacked Nigma Galaxy55c99.02$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fd7…d5a3backed Nigma Galaxy65c99.01$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.65666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Nigma Galaxy70c98.36$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3411330.1%34 W · 79 L-16.7wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-46.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Nigma Galaxy40c96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.613444%59 W · 75 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Nigma Galaxy67c95.46$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.522752.9%120 W · 107 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3274…06e1backed REKONIX35c94.78$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Nigma Galaxy63c91$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6751544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8616…3bb0backed Nigma Galaxy74c87.69$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.696854.4%37 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nigma Galaxy41c86.53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0637832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b30…5bf9backed REKONIX58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506666.7%44 W · 22 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed REKONIX28c84.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7116437.2%61 W · 103 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.