TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, REKONIX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,368
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,368 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9eca…5a59backed REKONIX44c19,839$8,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,749.9540051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Nigma Galaxy60c10,100$6,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,033.680256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Nigma Galaxy55c6,964$3,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,102.631,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Nigma Galaxy44c5,389$2,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,032.8789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed REKONIX40c4,900$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Nigma Galaxy60c4,828$2,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,931.331,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Nigma Galaxy59c3,533$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.7812557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Nigma Galaxy59c3,016$1,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.8161456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Nigma Galaxy54c2,132$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.021,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf1…c324backed REKONIX41c2,014$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.913633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Nigma Galaxy50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked REKONIX51c1,942$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.371,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked REKONIX42c1,730$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.9796645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed REKONIX42c1,548$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65030356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Nigma Galaxy57c1,541$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.5957449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Nigma Galaxy60c1,400$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56449455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed REKONIX38c1,325$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed REKONIX40c1,283$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.7414562.1%90 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked REKONIX32c1,106$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35999844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked REKONIX43c1,030$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.2153139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Nigma Galaxy45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Nigma Galaxy50c996$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49837945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Nigma Galaxy60c966.17$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.891,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked REKONIX40c956.78$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.1895342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked REKONIX41c799.98$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.9941055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked REKONIX50c781.84$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.0635960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8a…21b7backed Nigma Galaxy53c775$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed REKONIX39c765.63$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.9781029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Nigma Galaxy59c753.99$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.143237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebf8…7d2bbacked REKONIX40c730.36$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.1410541%43 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked REKONIX40c642$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.0766545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1552…2735backed Nigma Galaxy65c614.71$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.18450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Nigma Galaxy50c612$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.4279859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Nigma Galaxy63c599.99$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22246664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Nigma Galaxy55c566$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked REKONIX41c550$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.212,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked REKONIX35c480.7$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.641,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX53c462.64$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.062,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Nigma Galaxy61c437.1$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8386659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc186…ad81backed REKONIX40c399$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.63767.6%25 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked REKONIX48c392.1$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5913157.3%75 W · 56 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53d6…c414backed REKONIX46c373.29$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1705360.4%32 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Nigma Galaxy42c354.07$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.0755457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Nigma Galaxy60c333.81$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.8148054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed REKONIX41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12367555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed REKONIX55c244.73$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.727357.1%156 W · 117 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5051…82a6backed REKONIX40c236.59$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9520452.5%107 W · 97 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed REKONIX55c230.5$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7813068.5%89 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3216…0cc7backed Nigma Galaxy44c229$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.243754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Nigma Galaxy45c221.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2846049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1025…fbfabacked Nigma Galaxy59c201.32$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0430255.3%167 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked REKONIX55c199.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11044149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x312f…913cbacked Nigma Galaxy60c194$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.041952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nigma Galaxy55c176.38$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.151,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed REKONIX41c174.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.451,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c05…416cbacked REKONIX41c170.71$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702030%6 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Nigma Galaxy49c169.99$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.765441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Nigma Galaxy59c169.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3722868%155 W · 73 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed REKONIX34c159.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5554246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Nigma Galaxy44c158.57$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3419440.7%79 W · 115 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Nigma Galaxy58c158$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8364547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed REKONIX71c156.88$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.089837.8%37 W · 61 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked REKONIX35c155$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2554058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Nigma Galaxy53c154$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.441,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy58c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.71,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Nigma Galaxy61c149$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.111145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Nigma Galaxy38c144.34$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9452649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked Nigma Galaxy63c143.13$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3823555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7894…7b9dbacked Nigma Galaxy58c140$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked REKONIX57c139.45$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0167043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed REKONIX41c137.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.571,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Nigma Galaxy51c137$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.133764.9%24 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9fb…f9d1backed REKONIX21c133.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5916240.7%66 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked REKONIX24c112.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7633945.1%153 W · 186 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked REKONIX43c110.47$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.151,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked REKONIX30c107.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.656343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed Nigma Galaxy59c103.9$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8535948.2%173 W · 186 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed Nigma Galaxy52c100.01$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.342157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Nigma Galaxy63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3743049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed REKONIX52c99.61$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3747548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Nigma Galaxy42c97.05$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3589938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1863…6174backed Nigma Galaxy73c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.330460.2%183 W · 121 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8010…c05fbacked Nigma Galaxy64c89.16$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3416932.5%55 W · 114 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Nigma Galaxy42c89$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2515536.1%56 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed REKONIX47c88$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3629347.4%139 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed Nigma Galaxy38c77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.535923.7%14 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Nigma Galaxy29c72.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4924518.8%46 W · 199 L-31.2wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe136…6d09backed REKONIX43c70.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308542.4%36 W · 49 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e4…6ee4backed Nigma Galaxy57c66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.38771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed REKONIX43c62.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.571,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Nigma Galaxy67c61.97$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7460251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked REKONIX39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed REKONIX44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2237655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Nigma Galaxy50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8106…bd36backed Nigma Galaxy55c45.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.458056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked REKONIX39c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.527439.2%29 W · 45 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x79a1…a5cfbacked Nigma Galaxy64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41060%6 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3c…fc78backed Nigma Galaxy51c38.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.063577.1%27 W · 8 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+25.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Nigma Galaxy54c38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.481877.8%14 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+42.6%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Nigma Galaxy58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.282147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.