TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, REKONIX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,776
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,776 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06c…cdafbacked Nigma Galaxy53c11,380$6,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,316.191,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked REKONIX41c7,750$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,153.3780256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Nigma Galaxy60c4,131$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.1412557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Nigma Galaxy57c3,000$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.2379959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed REKONIX43c2,779$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.636256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Nigma Galaxy57c2,199$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.2455147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked REKONIX79c2,146$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,691.3186659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Nigma Galaxy44c1,903$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.4589741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked REKONIX68c1,735$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.5617954.2%97 W · 82 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked REKONIX42c1,638$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.1696645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Nigma Galaxy62c1,611$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.3661745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked REKONIX1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15442.3%1 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed Nigma Galaxy68c1,477$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.3524255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Nigma Galaxy64c1,259$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.9446664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed REKONIX40c1,200$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed REKONIX49c1,198$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.2354246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked REKONIX45c1,188$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5341,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed REKONIX43c1,107$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.767555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked REKONIX53c1,071$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.4599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked REKONIX51c1,053$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.6753139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked REKONIX1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012217.2%21 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-60.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Nigma Galaxy54c920.62$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.6257449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Nigma Galaxy57c900$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38741055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed REKONIX77c782.5$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed REKONIX52c773.21$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40055457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x810b…0848backed REKONIX43c694.91$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013144.3%58 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1552…2735backed Nigma Galaxy57c685$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed REKONIX34c615.99$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.4481029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked REKONIX42c485.97$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2861456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked REKONIX32c470.04$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8795342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Nigma Galaxy73c443.11$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.1727636.2%100 W · 176 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked REKONIX45c412.05$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.3879859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed REKONIX47c399.99$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18818143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked REKONIX45c385.65$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.782,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Nigma Galaxy26c322.36$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.5515536.1%56 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked REKONIX49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14746240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d2…86e7backed REKONIX44c278.83$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.21540%6 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nigma Galaxy64c274.37$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.871,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed REKONIX66c249.98$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9950769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed REKONIX41c241.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Nigma Galaxy59c241.06$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7296245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed REKONIX46c237.6$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.641,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Nigma Galaxy66c234.83$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8357455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53d6…c414backed Nigma Galaxy65c229.63$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.635360.4%32 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfff1…12e4backed REKONIX6c219.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1412937.2%48 W · 81 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked REKONIX22c200.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0933854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1676…ab19backed REKONIX11c199.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.925545.5%25 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed REKONIX50c198.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked REKONIX11c197.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.722740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed REKONIX53c189.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed Nigma Galaxy14c187$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.855923.7%14 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Nigma Galaxy52c182.07$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.671,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked REKONIX17c175.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8228846.9%135 W · 153 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Nigma Galaxy45c171$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.051145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Nigma Galaxy64c155.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0536654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked REKONIX40c150.13$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.641,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Nigma Galaxy45c146$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.365441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nigma Galaxy40c144.87$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.31,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nigma Galaxy58c143.03$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4667043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked REKONIX50c138.17$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2752649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked Nigma Galaxy70c131.25$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5717373.4%127 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81fe…4089backed REKONIX26c122.86$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9413262.9%83 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Nigma Galaxy20c120$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9636044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed Nigma Galaxy50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.791258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy56c119.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.61,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Nigma Galaxy19c105.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.268550.6%43 W · 42 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…6237backed REKONIX17c101.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.36149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb4…9ed0backed REKONIX80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804360.5%26 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2593…f798backed REKONIX27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Nigma Galaxy62c90.01$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8460251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc2…6ff9backed REKONIX44c88.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Nigma Galaxy60c87.86$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.456245.2%28 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX52c84.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.982,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Nigma Galaxy60c81.67$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6714763.3%93 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56f0…3068backed REKONIX37c80.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.98031.3%25 W · 55 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e47…bdbfbacked REKONIX26c78.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.314963.1%94 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…24cebacked Nigma Galaxy44c70$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d4d…4f6bbacked REKONIX80c62.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed REKONIX40c60.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5627357.1%156 W · 117 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed REKONIX31c58.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4819440.7%79 W · 115 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Nigma Galaxy63c58$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.47954.4%43 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb308…23a6backed REKONIX44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516939.6%67 W · 102 L-15.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1620…227bbacked REKONIX32c54.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3513762.8%86 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Nigma Galaxy39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2854648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked REKONIX45c50.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.741,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Nigma Galaxy57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.550444%222 W · 282 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Nigma Galaxy50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f5e…75a4backed REKONIX44c49.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.83714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-70.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked REKONIX32c48.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2689938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Nigma Galaxy40c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2754058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked REKONIX58c44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5621144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3561…1bfebacked REKONIX60c43.23$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2612357.7%71 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x263f…760dbacked REKONIX41c36.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed REKONIX44c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Nigma Galaxy51c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.151877.8%14 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+42.6%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4471…3f7bbacked REKONIX50c32.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Nigma Galaxy55c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.42147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked REKONIX40c28.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2227952.3%146 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Nigma Galaxy69c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.564547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Nigma Galaxy69c17.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2550032.2%161 W · 339 L-47.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.