Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x908c92c07e8bc4a1a818cf82843273a7d8eb6a0bfc9645fe6d33a73d89f32997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,121$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.08 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 18c | 2,850$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.86 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 2,360$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.03 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 22c | 2,286$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.25 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,471$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,442$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 3c | 1,336$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 34c | 1,318$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.09 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed Yes | 1c | 1,141$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 14c | 1,129$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.04 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 955.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 14c | 940.53$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.26 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 11c | 810.62$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 13c | 762.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 650$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 11c | 604.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 19c | 590.73$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.31 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 541.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 22c | 541.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 19c | 523.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 14c | 500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 477.34$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 80c | 459.07$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 17c | 384.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 381.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 358.86$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a3…68efbacked Yes | 23c | 347.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 15c | 346.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 16c | 309.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 4c | 252.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 11c | 242.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 237.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 77c | 220$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 22c | 205.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 15c | 201.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 201$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 18c | 195.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…7518backed Yes | 13c | 184.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 154.22$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 150.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 23c | 147.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 15c | 145.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 15c | 143.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…a2a0backed Yes | 8c | 138.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…a73bbacked Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 70c | 114.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 20c | 112.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 19c | 109.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 103.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 13c | 96.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 27c | 93.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 87.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d24…3fdbbacked Yes | 58c | 81.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed Yes | 25c | 80.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 78.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 24c | 78.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 70c | 70.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 70c | 70.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 70c | 70.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 77c | 66.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 66.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…2ef7backed No | 76c | 65.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 75c | 60.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 78c | 54.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 28c | 44.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 42.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 69c | 37.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 71c | 28.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf517…a30cbacked No | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0f…229abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 80cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.