TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,472

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes55c3,292$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.6133929.5%100 W · 239 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes50c1,662$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.0955336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes34c1,582$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.415433.8%52 W · 102 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3000…9eb1backed No42c1,411$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.492934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes25c1,378$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.2218731%58 W · 129 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes12c707.85$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.688016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No63c650.99$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.217,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes4c624.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4334922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes27c584.95$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8828925.3%73 W · 216 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62ef…f1dcbacked No48c573.59$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.533221.9%7 W · 25 L-6.3wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-57.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes8c568.65$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.082,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes51c515.05$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.5568338.8%265 W · 418 L+36.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e71…afe6backed Yes23c509.81$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11727226.5%72 W · 200 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x702e…4357backed Yes23c509.25$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9320832.7%68 W · 140 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes28c489.96$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1230832.5%100 W · 208 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No55c424.27$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.361,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No48c380.01$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.336,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No54c319.9$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.221,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e6…ad16backed Yes63c317$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.633450%17 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c304.2$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.055,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed No53c278.49$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9547432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No44c257.48$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9616348.5%79 W · 84 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No64c244$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.965,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed Yes6c239.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2658922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No60c238.13$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.222,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x230d…c39bbacked Yes34c234.82$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.711338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+50.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No40c207.07$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.61,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes38c200$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1514635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No49c199.9$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0588650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed No48c168.4$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.43943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No60c166.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.773,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes15c160$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.612,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No66c158.69$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.532,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc995…05a3backed Yes42c150$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5478663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No53c149$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.782,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c140$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.544,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde67…c144backed No77c138.34$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8614835.8%53 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No73c134.44$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.641760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No43c128.85$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9227669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes34c128.8$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No70c128.17$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0855855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No70c120.77$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7925358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes49c120.08$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.468041.3%33 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes27c116.84$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes31c111.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.661,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No77c105.18$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.413,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83cd…e218backed Yes53c101.3$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549448.9%46 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes47c100.06$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.639239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5cb1…e80cbacked No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.59965.7%65 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x818b…1646backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9510850.9%55 W · 53 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed Yes62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6214054.3%76 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No34c99.92$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.951,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa50b…12c4backed Yes12c96.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.565238.5%20 W · 32 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes46c93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1112535.2%44 W · 81 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes16c86.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.981,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae60…9c28backed Yes50c83.32$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.575825.9%15 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No63c77.14$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6238655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes54c72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.881,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No69c72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3219052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6995…1187backed Yes28c70.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes31c66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.38538.8%33 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x541e…b57abacked Yes16c64.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.213141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes15c64.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1039346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.21,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes25c58.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.325,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No64c57.12$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.832,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No39c56.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No54c54.23$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No58c54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.492,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x410f…57febacked Yes48c50.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.253318.2%6 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No52c50.38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.992,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes40c50.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.321,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb354…8749backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No67c46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.022,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No66c45.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.632,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes43c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1337532.8%123 W · 252 L+36.4wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+109.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed No68c38.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4213051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b846backed Yes49c37.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.312846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf6…d7b7backed Yes55c36.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes53c36.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.238942.7%38 W · 51 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0072…6bb5backed No73c34.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.08475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe985…8cc8backed No40c31.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.758325.3%21 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe037…8a91backed No52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4517841.6%74 W · 104 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes60c29.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5634853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d7c…5dadbacked No71c29.14$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.443452.9%18 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4526…2d4bbacked No56c28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.269159.3%54 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No61c26.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.592,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ce…b36fbacked Yes40c26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.353852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9008…09f0backed No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1011939.5%47 W · 72 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b3a…9096backed No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102445.8%11 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+37.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.751,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07f5…d680backed No63c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.592290.9%20 W · 2 L+6.7wins+0.30per pick61cpaid+64.9%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x0558…8dbebacked Yes47c22.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No62c22.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.532,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No51c22.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.722,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No65c19.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7148149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.