Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a4bbc3d1016662220aa62a20baf0c0b73997ccaf5a44a4ca5101c8199ba097d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 55c | 3,292$1,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824.61 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 50c | 1,662$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.09 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 34c | 1,582$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.4 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed No | 42c | 1,411$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.49 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 25c | 1,378$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.22 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 12c | 707.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 650.99$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 4c | 624.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 27c | 584.95$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked No | 48c | 573.59$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.53 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 568.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 51c | 515.05$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.55 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 23c | 509.81$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 23c | 509.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.93 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 28c | 489.96$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.12 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 424.27$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.36 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 380.01$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 319.9$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.22 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 63c | 317$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.63 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 304.2$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 53c | 278.49$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.95 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 44c | 257.48$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 244$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 6c | 239.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 238.13$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.22 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230d…c39bbacked Yes | 34c | 234.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 40c | 207.07$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 49c | 199.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed No | 48c | 168.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 60c | 166.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 158.69$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 53c | 149$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed No | 77c | 138.34$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 73c | 134.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 43c | 128.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 128.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 70c | 128.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 70c | 120.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 49c | 120.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 27c | 116.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 111.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 105.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 53c | 101.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 47c | 100.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 99.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed Yes | 12c | 96.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 46c | 93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 86.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 50c | 83.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 63c | 77.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 54c | 72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…1187backed Yes | 28c | 70.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 31c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 16c | 64.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 15c | 64.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 58.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 57.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 39c | 56.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 54c | 54.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x410f…57febacked Yes | 48c | 50.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 50.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 40c | 50.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb354…8749backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 45.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 68c | 38.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b846backed Yes | 49c | 37.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…d7b7backed Yes | 55c | 36.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 53c | 36.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…6bb5backed No | 73c | 34.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 40c | 31.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 60c | 29.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked No | 71c | 29.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 26.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…9096backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed No | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…8dbebacked Yes | 47c | 22.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 22.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 22.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 65c | 19.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.