Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x310957244d9c698a7822274c46d949e8f5f13506607c4651edcbf1478a74afc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 28c | 2,521$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,824.27 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 44c | 2,289$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.57 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 57c | 2,045$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.66 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 70c | 1,960$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.62 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 40c | 1,427$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.11 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 32c | 865.7$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.85 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 853.47$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 76c | 791.31$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.29 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed No | 16c | 778.18$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 761.33$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 671.98$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 647$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 56c | 624.65$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.54 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 33c | 502.73$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.42 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 23c | 499.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.09 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 493.3$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 52c | 480.03$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.91 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 469.83$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.66 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 24c | 448.21$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.39 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 27c | 447.27$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.4 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked No | 7c | 445.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 432.85$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 31c | 422.14$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.32 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 77c | 418.93$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 391.29$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.25 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 64c | 381.17$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.3 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 22c | 377.69$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.1 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 346$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 344.08$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.65 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 315.09$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 310.99$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.47 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x446d…6034backed Yes | 35c | 277.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 261.34$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.94 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 48c | 249.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 52c | 249.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.76 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 20c | 231.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.07 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 14c | 217.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 68c | 196.35$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 187.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 13c | 183.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.32 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 18c | 182.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 167.67$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.42 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 54c | 166.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 73c | 165.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 11c | 164.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 59c | 160.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 20c | 160$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 54c | 158.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 24c | 156.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 51c | 149.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 55c | 146.57$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 15c | 140.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 138.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 65c | 136.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 58c | 134.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 127.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 124.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 54c | 117.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 116.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 116.39$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 113.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 67c | 112.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 25c | 112.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 18c | 112.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 76c | 107.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 13c | 104.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 73c | 103.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 60c | 103.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 55c | 101$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 51c | 99.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 78c | 94.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 89.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 62c | 86.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 83.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed No | 20c | 83.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 72c | 82.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 79.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f9…ed8abacked Yes | 27c | 78.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 71c | 78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 76.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 39c | 75.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 68c | 73.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 64c | 70.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed Yes | 29c | 69.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed No | 22c | 67.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb354…8749backed Yes | 33c | 64.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 29c | 64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed No | 79c | 63.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…a2a0backed Yes | 23c | 62.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 76c | 60.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 56c | 57.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.