Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b2634388bf27a24875bd6138904854e55b38c27110509cb68c704b2ab9f70d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 2,158$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,891$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.09 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 32c | 1,769$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.45 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 1,699$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.47 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 920$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 56c | 865.65$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.07 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 20c | 776.22$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 675$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 674.37$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.3 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 22c | 660.93$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.19 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 575.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 17c | 538.3$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 518.35$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 40c | 488.89$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.99 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 42c | 472.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 433.2$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 421.43$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 32c | 350$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 18c | 344.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 319.9$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 34c | 298.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 24c | 295.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 36c | 289.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…ae17backed Yes | 37c | 268.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 253.86$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 240.37$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 23c | 228$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 20c | 226.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 225.74$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 217.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 29c | 216.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 213.82$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 21c | 204.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 52c | 196.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5a…d32abacked Yes | 30c | 192.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 28c | 191.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 183.1$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 48c | 181.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 167.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 58c | 166.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 15c | 163.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 63c | 157.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 155.83$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 154.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 50c | 149.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 148.21$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 145.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 14c | 143.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 23c | 143.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 68c | 143.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed Yes | 39c | 139.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410f…57febacked Yes | 57c | 135.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…b8eebacked Yes | 45c | 135.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 135$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 29c | 128.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 120.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 118.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 111.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 35c | 108.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 51c | 105.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 102.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 67c | 102.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…7518backed Yes | 29c | 102.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…6922backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be6…66ffbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 99.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 29c | 99.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…a73bbacked Yes | 14c | 93.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 36c | 91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 34c | 88.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34bc…73babacked Yes | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…81e4backed Yes | 32c | 83.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 16c | 78.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 26c | 76.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 76c | 76.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 75.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 75.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0a92backed Yes | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 74.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes | 68c | 73.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71ae…acdcbacked Yes | 69c | 72.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 64c | 70.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 74c | 67.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 32c | 65.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 64.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 60c | 63.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 20c | 62.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 62.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 31c | 61.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 35c | 61.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.