TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-RUBYof Johnny Speeds, ex-RUBY
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,629 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2fe8…3549backed ex-RUBY48c19,678$9,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,238.3313954.7%76 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Johnny Speeds47c6,770$3,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,177.443,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1307…d640backed Johnny Speeds52c5,582$2,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.221250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcf…48e1backed Johnny Speeds53c2,717$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.948749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Johnny Speeds51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02013954.7%76 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-RUBY45c1,039$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.157,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Johnny Speeds29c1,035$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29614744.2%65 W · 82 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Johnny Speeds4c997.81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.254938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Johnny Speeds3c978.34$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.761,5009.9%148 W · 1,352 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Johnny Speeds21c946.25$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9438844.6%173 W · 215 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Johnny Speeds22c927.27$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20558149.2%286 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa340…409bbacked ex-RUBY68c669.02$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.752152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+65.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Johnny Speeds56c622.54$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.3229235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Johnny Speeds53c600$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31810442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed ex-RUBY44c600$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33650833.5%170 W · 338 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Johnny Speeds53c533.09$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28319043.7%83 W · 107 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f4…8c1ebacked ex-RUBY47c500$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5227947.7%133 W · 146 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf399…2afbbacked ex-RUBY77c474.81$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.474100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Johnny Speeds22c466.61$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1629128.5%83 W · 208 L-30.2wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed ex-RUBY75c457.58$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3511361.1%69 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2694…415abacked Johnny Speeds6c443.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c6…1c37backed Johnny Speeds60c418.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011937.8%45 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fca…2e16backed Johnny Speeds37c399.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1484247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Johnny Speeds51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Johnny Speeds53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020944%92 W · 117 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Johnny Speeds54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20032653.1%173 W · 153 L-1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed ex-RUBY40c363.68$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.2697230%292 W · 680 L-23.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe71c…0d30backed Johnny Speeds29c361$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.164141.5%17 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked ex-RUBY69c331.92$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.052,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-RUBY51c330$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.775,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Johnny Speeds53c322.94$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1615442.2%65 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Johnny Speeds51c315$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.6529046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Johnny Speeds51c303.92$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15510947.7%52 W · 57 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed ex-RUBY60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12078348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Johnny Speeds53c250$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13243640.6%177 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d97…a92dbacked Johnny Speeds43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac0c…739cbacked Johnny Speeds15c230$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.566034.1%225 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33f1…7a59backed ex-RUBY48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3318543.2%80 W · 105 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfa4…9608backed Johnny Speeds51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70db…05c8backed ex-RUBY65c187.82$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Johnny Speeds54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10054348.6%264 W · 279 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x663b…6a3ebacked ex-RUBY61c169.38$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.823100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x850a…e5dbbacked Johnny Speeds61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012669%87 W · 39 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked Johnny Speeds53c150.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed ex-RUBY47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.554032.4%175 W · 365 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Johnny Speeds14c144.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.232,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e9a…becbbacked Johnny Speeds51c132.41$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.824254.8%23 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed ex-RUBY66c125.88$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.369863%440 W · 258 L+65.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Johnny Speeds44c125.53$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.986949.3%34 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3b…fafdbacked Johnny Speeds51c125.12$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12a1…4e4dbacked ex-RUBY53c113.49$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.494936.7%18 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Johnny Speeds38c107.71$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1191648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5d30…1a5ebacked ex-RUBY73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.55354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Johnny Speeds43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435543.6%24 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed ex-RUBY45c95.06$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2331735.6%113 W · 204 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed ex-RUBY43c92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.293743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x795f…1871backed Johnny Speeds20c90.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8959…68e2backed Johnny Speeds40c87.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357429.7%22 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-36.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x628e…1d80backed Johnny Speeds52c81.19$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.273161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x983a…ac6bbacked Johnny Speeds51c80$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.88759.8%52 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed Johnny Speeds53c77.36$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+69.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b08…8f40backed Johnny Speeds53c69.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.613452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x309d…4287backed Johnny Speeds53c65.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.244940.8%20 W · 29 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-32.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e59…b497backed Johnny Speeds57c61.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-55.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8dde…b1aebacked Johnny Speeds56c58.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4160%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3717…b35bbacked Johnny Speeds51c58.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.72740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…8be8backed Johnny Speeds32c56.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7741054.6%224 W · 186 L+29.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad0a…7898backed Johnny Speeds55c55.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.665637.5%21 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c21…c02bbacked Johnny Speeds40c53.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1911734.2%40 W · 77 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Johnny Speeds51c50.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610632.1%34 W · 72 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfda5…53d7backed Johnny Speeds49c50.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed ex-RUBY44c49.55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.821,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x392c…0bb4backed Johnny Speeds61c49.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3aca…d156backed Johnny Speeds31c45.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe51e…967abacked Johnny Speeds45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…1591backed Johnny Speeds55c42.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.67647.4%36 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-RUBY76c41.44$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.95,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e87…7685backed ex-RUBY77c40.73$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab6…f845backed Johnny Speeds52c40.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.064845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fff…665bbacked Johnny Speeds51c38.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.461668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8d9…25f6backed Johnny Speeds55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a5…2f22backed ex-RUBY77c35.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb6…735cbacked Johnny Speeds54c34.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.491450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61c0…35cfbacked Johnny Speeds53c33.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74e2…89a5backed Johnny Speeds53c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.363762.2%23 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…8ff5backed Johnny Speeds42c32.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27d3…7333backed Johnny Speeds53c32.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x640f…4cc0backed Johnny Speeds51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.32544%11 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9219…5ca1backed ex-RUBY64c29.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Johnny Speeds52c25.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2720539.5%81 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa100…60e1backed ex-RUBY45c24.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7513737.2%51 W · 86 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6852…c24ebacked Johnny Speeds51c24.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa132…482ebacked ex-RUBY74c24.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.42616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-77.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ec…dab9backed ex-RUBY74c24.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf33…ab3ebacked Johnny Speeds58c23.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.531968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78d9…70f6backed Johnny Speeds53c22.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.963943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed ex-RUBY52c21.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.251,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Johnny Speeds51c20.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4716532.1%53 W · 112 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec48…d04cbacked Johnny Speeds54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.811051.8%57 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e1d…a7f9backed ex-RUBY74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.