Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9112408ec36f9d6737ee9bb8d8cf383016f8bba253b46fac7781b5d24af5b4ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 2c | 1,900$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 2c | 1,094$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 67c | 701.3$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.45 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…9ca9backed No | 3c | 616.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 32c | 519.77$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.68 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 76c | 436.91$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.98 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…0fb8backed Yes | 50c | 386.55$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed No | 56c | 320.08$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.24 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 25c | 316.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 67c | 276.8$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 62c | 206.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.53 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 179.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 50c | 171.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 164.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 56c | 152.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 65c | 131.8$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 130.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 52c | 115.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…7f29backed No | 45c | 113$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 50c | 103.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 56c | 97.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 69c | 97.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 64c | 91.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked No | 49c | 90.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 75c | 89.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 52c | 86.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 15c | 85.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 37c | 83.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 49c | 81.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 24c | 80.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 72.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 60c | 70.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc45c…a767backed No | 44c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…9c2ebacked Yes | 64c | 64.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 33c | 59.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365b…9c42backed Yes | 40c | 54.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082a…defabacked No | 58c | 51.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…d646backed No | 62c | 48.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d81…7edfbacked Yes | 45c | 47.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 66c | 47.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 33c | 44.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 43.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…3bdfbacked Yes | 49c | 40.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…0f9cbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 37c | 35.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…2b4fbacked Yes | 59c | 34.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 33.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff5…5237backed Yes | 63c | 31.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 31.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052f…bed1backed No | 39c | 30.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…7658backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…4406backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…bbd9backed Yes | 54c | 29.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed Yes | 37c | 28.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked No | 72c | 25.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…04ecbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1a…5b63backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…f2d1backed Yes | 45c | 24.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1597…f215backed No | 57c | 20.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb2…c863backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 18.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 56c | 18.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.