Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea535e2b0287eeba3641286204e9557659f4ea0658785d3357bd68becd698f31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 0c | 3,141$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 8c | 999.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 11c | 719.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 79c | 619.25$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.42 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…a1c1backed Yes | 36c | 277.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked No | 75c | 264.27$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 246.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 34c | 222.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 199.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 68c | 171.58$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 33c | 136.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 132.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 66c | 113.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…43fdbacked No | 66c | 113.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 11c | 109.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 39c | 107.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…3d3ebacked No | 72c | 105.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 69c | 81.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…7f29backed Yes | 29c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…c580backed No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +108%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…241dbacked Yes | 23c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…b7d0backed Yes | 34c | 63.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 61c | 61.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 29c | 59.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 26c | 57.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked Yes | 18c | 57.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 37c | 53.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 31c | 53.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…84dcbacked Yes | 32c | 42.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 39.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 31.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 71c | 26.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 65c | 24.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e87…d482backed Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 45c | 23.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 20.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 56c | 20.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.