Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e31272c58326b7795420e98d945841fd6dd13ed9b5f3a38bc49cf262d17b2b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 2,080$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…9ca9backed Yes | 3c | 1,136$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…b5febacked Yes | 2c | 823.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 14c | 688.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 22c | 677.36$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.69 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 601.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 528.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 10c | 499.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 6c | 425.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 18c | 350$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 9c | 211.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 196.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 6c | 185.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 79c | 171.58$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 25c | 164.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 8c | 149.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 77c | 135$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 8c | 124.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 16c | 105.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 21c | 104.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 21c | 104.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 22c | 98.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 16c | 95.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 16c | 92.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 76.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x052f…bed1backed Yes | 24c | 69.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 23c | 65.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 75c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 25c | 45.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…65dcbacked No | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…260fbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on February 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.