Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Spirit (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9146e8b2bb2eef63585ff72463c07eea85e36b4bc3a5bba60088266be9d273f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked MOUZ | 53c | 25,791$13,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,134.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Spirit | 50c | 6,678$3,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,317.83 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked MOUZ | 34c | 5,679$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,730.91 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 43c | 4,820$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.44 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Team Spirit | 61c | 4,111$2,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,495.47 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Team Spirit | 51c | 3,995$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.23 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed MOUZ | 33c | 3,252$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.34 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Spirit | 54c | 3,010$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed MOUZ | 28c | 2,938$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.68 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Spirit | 63c | 2,918$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,847.66 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked MOUZ | 29c | 2,794$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.96 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked MOUZ | 55c | 2,259$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.99 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Team Spirit | 32c | 2,250$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.03 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Team Spirit | 77c | 2,105$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.28 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Team Spirit | 56c | 1,646$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.63 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Team Spirit | 72c | 1,420$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.93 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ | 54c | 1,139$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.57 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Spirit | 37c | 860.06$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.19 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed MOUZ | 32c | 774.17$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.44 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…342dbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 720.26$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.82 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Team Spirit | 71c | 700.36$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.75 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Team Spirit | 54c | 665.11$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.37 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed MOUZ | 28c | 661.87$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.26 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed MOUZ | 39c | 629.87$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.22 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Team Spirit | 72c | 546$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.12 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Team Spirit | 66c | 500$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…c36abacked Team Spirit | 46c | 436.79$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Spirit | 55c | 390.84$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Spirit | 70c | 369$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.3 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Team Spirit | 68c | 337.03$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.26 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Team Spirit | 72c | 324$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.98 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…29d6backed Team Spirit | 46c | 310.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.05 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Team Spirit | 72c | 310$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.8 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed MOUZ | 53c | 291.31$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.92 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63f…8032backed Team Spirit | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Team Spirit | 69c | 267.95$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed Team Spirit | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed MOUZ | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked Team Spirit | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Team Spirit | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Team Spirit | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked MOUZ | 56c | 195.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac00…99d6backed Team Spirit | 45c | 175$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…68e1backed Team Spirit | 54c | 165.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0f…a20bbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…019dbacked MOUZ | 33c | 135.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f8…26a8backed Team Spirit | 47c | 132.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked MOUZ | 42c | 130$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…7c2fbacked Team Spirit | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…3396backed Team Spirit | 79c | 106.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Team Spirit | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…c255backed MOUZ | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Spirit | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…3170backed Team Spirit | 77c | 97.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd5…81b0backed Team Spirit | 69c | 96.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Team Spirit | 45c | 85.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…942dbacked MOUZ | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Team Spirit | 58c | 59.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…8700backed MOUZ | 32c | 56.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked MOUZ | 35c | 51.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Team Spirit | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked MOUZ | 75c | 49.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff4f…2460backed Team Spirit | 66c | 45.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc294…c088backed Team Spirit | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…833dbacked Team Spirit | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Team Spirit | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Team Spirit | 48c | 41.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0524…1479backed Team Spirit | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…37ccbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed MOUZ | 31c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…3239backed MOUZ | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x037c…509ebacked MOUZ | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a78…496abacked Team Spirit | 59c | 34.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ | 33c | 31.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Team Spirit | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Team Spirit | 71c | 23.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked MOUZ | 46c | 23.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Team Spirit | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.