Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Vitória SC vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9169631211555dfeab9e941c31635cbeeb19c70cd2a969099defb615a3bd41ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Yes | 49c | 2,024$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 1,625$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.89 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed No | 61c | 1,199$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 54c | 971.16$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.56 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 50c | 750$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.01 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f11…837cbacked Yes | 44c | 740.06$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…22a3backed Yes | 39c | 700$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 10c | 515.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 10c | 433$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 28c | 432.14$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 362.35$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.96 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 46c | 280.16$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 18c | 266.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 39c | 255.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2f…f350backed Yes | 28c | 229.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…979abacked No | 54c | 199.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 53c | 172$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.02 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked No | 62c | 161.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 37c | 118.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 24c | 108.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 29c | 69.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 71c | 55.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 72c | 54.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…928abacked Yes | 28c | 52.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 44c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 31c | 47.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 38c | 47.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked No | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…3a00backed Yes | 39c | 35.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 58c | 25.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 63c | 19.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vitória SC vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Nacional win on 2026-01-02?No won
- Will Vitória SC win on 2026-01-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.