Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional win on 2026-01-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x120c86ff00d90540fcb5d36050aec9386dd55645ab8df25b9edb8a88d99f0674
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6135…9b85backed No | 80c | 1,476$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed Yes | 18c | 1,306$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 22c | 983.77$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…b6e6backed No | 79c | 816.26$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 7c | 738.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 602.43$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.17 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 20c | 558.51$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 294 | 25.9%76 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…7dd4backed No | 79c | 472.08$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.87 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 20c | 434.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…d129backed Yes | 22c | 363.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 22c | 342.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 20c | 299$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 80c | 208.59$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…5fa4backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes | 21c | 195.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 20c | 185$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 20c | 167.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 19c | 159.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 20c | 149.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa041…04d2backed Yes | 21c | 133.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…45e7backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…dbf0backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…475cbacked Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 95.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…3ba2backed Yes | 20c | 89.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 32c | 88.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0a…e3acbacked Yes | 21c | 83.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 79c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x141f…9e9bbacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Yes | 23c | 69.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +95%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ff…9bfbbacked Yes | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked No | 79c | 64.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…bcc6backed Yes | 20c | 58.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…334cbacked Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…697bbacked No | 80c | 38.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…a896backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 80c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…f39dbacked No | 80c | 15.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional win on 2026-01-02?this page
- Will Vitória SC vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?No won
- Will Vitória SC win on 2026-01-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.