TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,617
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,617 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes50c1,107$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.484,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes80c443.19$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.242572%18 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes65c423.74$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.845,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c380.96$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.048,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad8a…9d7bbacked No18c380.45$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.497558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c356.52$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No39c325.73$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6259021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes59c287.24$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.254043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No63c286.09$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.232,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c268.1$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No75c266$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.581165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No13c254.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.167,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes25c226.25$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.871,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30bd…cecabacked Yes52c193.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.123836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc92b…a1c4backed No54c192.73$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.752147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes31c181.59$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.872,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9750…031dbacked No15c167.36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.771747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5fc…c493backed No46c157$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.465451.9%28 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes44c146.8$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5223743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes44c146.18$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.141,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c133.46$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.747,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No37c133.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.943,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes35c130.97$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.521,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes34c128.7$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.851,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes41c128.67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.211331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No40c122.69$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.084,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed Yes24c109.53$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1619648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes57c106.91$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1931442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cd9…055dbacked No22c97.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.321353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No24c96.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.431,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x635a…cccbbacked Yes35c89.92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.219150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No41c82.3$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.052,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No23c79.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5535058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes70c76.22$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1613728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes37c75.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8621440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6aa…43a5backed No67c73.53$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.32616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-70.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes75c73.25$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4365749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No59c69.2$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.881,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No36c62.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2438758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes80c57.82$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5625449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.169,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No60c50.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3916548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes38c50.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.276046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec45…6c6dbacked No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc09…467fbacked Yes75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.56949.3%34 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8cf…dbffbacked Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes36c49.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6866926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes67c49.52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2599962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes33c46.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2634934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No66c45.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9748743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x236b…9b00backed No71c45.08$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8220266.8%135 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes27c45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8659125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7650…5099backed Yes77c44.31$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.012544%11 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No67c44.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3962770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c40.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes60c39.64$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8520928.7%60 W · 149 L-45.3wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked Yes34c38.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3719059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes32c37.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.781,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd082…b5e8backed Yes79c37.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.815556.4%31 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes36c33.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4826566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes35c32.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.181,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce63…3ebdbacked Yes38c32.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.961822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes35c30.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9633139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2154966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes34c29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1910228.4%29 W · 73 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No51c28.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3539157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f2c…6e24backed No70c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.63423.5%8 W · 26 L-10.9wins-0.32per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight29-0.18 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No64c27.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.641,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No75c26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x072f…86b1backed No56c25.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1911151.4%57 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked No66c25.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6622934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes46c25.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5852533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes77c24.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7381234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No56c23.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9335854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes45c22.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.333,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3eb…4af7backed No62c21.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.121540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No70c20.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.541,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde57…76a4backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+93.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No63c19.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5993734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes80c16.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.331,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c16.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2930…3666backed No67c15.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.515162.7%32 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00b3…f08ebacked No67c15.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.311553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.