Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92009ed6dbe3e24dc15b09b48dd941c01f05c38f5f438d8242822179f2d3711c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 58c | 1,124$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.23 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 32c | 578.72$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.54 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 573.53$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 364.41$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 249.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.21 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 214$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 194.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 166.63$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed Yes | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 159.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 137$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 76c | 125.49$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 119.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 38c | 117.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed Yes | 28c | 114.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 108.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…451abacked Yes | 42c | 102.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…1851backed Yes | 42c | 97.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 23c | 95.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 36c | 93.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 42c | 93.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 92.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5211…6cd3backed Yes | 42c | 92.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 85.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 59c | 84.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 38c | 63.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 60.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 41c | 59.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 63c | 58.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 37c | 55.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 65c | 52.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 64c | 45.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 56c | 45.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 40.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 40.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 37c | 40.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…fc5cbacked Yes | 42c | 40.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 43c | 39.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 58c | 38.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 44c | 38.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 46c | 37.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 37.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8343…ba81backed No | 55c | 35.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 30.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 29.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 64c | 27.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 26.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 78c | 24.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 63c | 23.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 53c | 21.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…66f7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 19.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 64c | 18.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 18.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.