Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x733607ca6af38c6f9eda406d6fad295806991b3c4ce3a5406d3602a31a9065aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,523$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.34 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 773.6$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 10c | 601.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 46c | 559.96$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.5 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 520.15$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.46 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 44c | 482.07$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.68 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 370$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 259.37$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 55c | 214.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 47c | 199.56$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 14c | 188$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 36c | 181$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.49 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 175.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…433abacked No | 26c | 153.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 55c | 148.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 142$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 58c | 133$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 51c | 125.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 50c | 119.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 33c | 118.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 106.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 103.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 62c | 91.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 50c | 90.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 50c | 84.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 82.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 33c | 79.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 74.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 72.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 71.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 44c | 69.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 54c | 59.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 22c | 56.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 48c | 55.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 55c | 54.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 49.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 77c | 48.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 51c | 48.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 24c | 45.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 60c | 45.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 49c | 41.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 59c | 39.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 37.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 35.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 45c | 33.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 45c | 29.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 51c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 26.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…6060backed No | 56c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 78c | 24.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 78c | 24.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 51c | 23.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 55c | 22.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 21.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…66f7backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.