Tennis · resolved market
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x920db47b5c65bec055079097100a3cbba9b22f277819c290a6c7f00ae69d827f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc620…070fbacked No | 35c | 55,621$19,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,467.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…dc3abacked Yes | 65c | 55,621$36,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,467.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…a4e1backed Yes | 44c | 23,511$10,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,166.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…5637backed No | 56c | 23,511$13,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,166.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 21c | 6,963$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.03 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 21c | 5,000$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.04 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9e…bde4backed Yes | 79c | 4,904$3,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 32c | 3,927$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.3 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x227e…c85abacked Yes | 64c | 1,396$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 17c | 1,100$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…8b01backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 47c | 859.85$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.74 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 66c | 800$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.55 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 53c | 599$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.53 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 24c | 496.45$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 62c | 323.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.57 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 249$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…c4c4backed Yes | 63c | 238.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Yes | 66c | 228.79$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Yes | 79c | 213$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…b4f9backed Yes | 48c | 208.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Yes | 57c | 191.3$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 31c | 190$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f393backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 41c | 131$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aee…b3e3backed Yes | 56c | 130.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bb…3767backed No | 46c | 126.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ff…d049backed Yes | 78c | 115.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…0ac5backed Yes | 63c | 111.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…d7a0backed Yes | 56c | 107.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…9af8backed No | 48c | 106.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…863dbacked Yes | 57c | 103.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d71…fdd0backed Yes | 69c | 101.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 94.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Yes | 51c | 80.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…2391backed No | 34c | 58.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4839…ec4cbacked Yes | 56c | 55.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 39c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…444bbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 49c | 24.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…af7bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…7706backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters?this page
- Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters?No won
- Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.