NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x928dd1547079bd42343082def509f120edc19d3212d2973b5e3bd7588dbd33a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Raptors, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Raptors | 54c | 6,000$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 46c | 4,886$2,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 45c | 3,469$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.11 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors | 52c | 2,873$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.65 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Raptors | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Pacers | 47c | 1,569$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.72 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Pacers | 49c | 1,005$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.55 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Raptors | 55c | 799.98$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 48c | 473$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.15 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacers | 48c | 375$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pacers | 46c | 220$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors | 28c | 201.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Pacers | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 46c | 192.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Raptors | 54c | 165.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Pacers | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Pacers | 46c | 114$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Raptors | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pacers | 46c | 100.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Pacers | 44c | 99.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Raptors | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Raptors | 53c | 94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Raptors | 49c | 84.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pacers | 47c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…f8c9backed Raptors | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers | 50c | 70.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Raptors | 52c | 68.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…184cbacked Raptors | 56c | 55.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…b06abacked Raptors | 54c | 47.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Raptors | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Raptors | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Pacers | 47c | 40.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf08…f276backed Raptors | 54c | 37.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Raptors | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 210 | 62.9%132 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Raptors | 57c | 34.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers | 46c | 33.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Pacers | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Raptors | 54c | 25.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Raptors | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Pacers won
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.