NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x259170888f671240df20d5ff7e424f425fb7d82b9521225c1f5e978c18a869b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Raptors, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 42c | 1,704$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers | 49c | 1,427$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.14 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Pacers | 42c | 1,400$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Raptors | 58c | 1,339$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.62 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Pacers | 45c | 1,320$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.6 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 42c | 1,124$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Raptors | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Raptors | 58c | 864.12$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.19 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors | 53c | 375$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pacers | 42c | 339.59$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.56 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Raptors | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Raptors | 58c | 296.55$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 42c | 290.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.67 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Raptors | 59c | 288.14$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Raptors | 59c | 264.3$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.94 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Raptors | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Raptors | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Raptors | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors | 34c | 164.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Pacers | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658d…859fbacked Raptors | 54c | 139.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pacers | 41c | 135.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Raptors | 58c | 118.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Raptors | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…dfa3backed Raptors | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pacers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Pacers | 42c | 99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Raptors | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Raptors | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…82fbbacked Raptors | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Raptors | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…a811backed Raptors | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca6…0b8fbacked Raptors | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Raptors | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Raptors | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Raptors | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…c61bbacked Raptors | 59c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Raptors | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Raptors | 60c | 25.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Raptors | 54c | 22.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Pacers won
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.