Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Korda (+1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9298248d631e4333a0d535d645a5662ddd6bebeae9c0cb8fbf58380a3280d71e

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Kordaof Alcaraz, Korda
Resolved: Mar 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $15,510

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,510 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9c76…c926backed Korda	34c	3,138$1,059 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,078.74	4,076	39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L	+93.7wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Alcaraz	66c	1,862$1,229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,229.19	118	52.5%62 W · 56 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Korda	34c	1,248$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$823.8	7,724	47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L	+41.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Korda	34c	1,046$357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$689.3	1,809	43.8%793 W · 1,016 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c95…8a0bbacked Alcaraz	66c	1,000$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660	106	55.7%59 W · 47 L	-6.1wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Korda	36c	972.49$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$623.17	183	37.7%69 W · 114 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42c…a0edbacked Alcaraz	64c	800$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Korda	35c	714.02$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$463.21	295	33.6%99 W · 196 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4738…4687backed Alcaraz	67c	652.73$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.33	373	51.2%191 W · 182 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ce…0a8ebacked Alcaraz	65c	399.98$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.98	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x246d…c74dbacked Alcaraz	67c	374.47$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	180	53.9%97 W · 83 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Alcaraz	66c	351.52$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	70	37.1%26 W · 44 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61ec…838fbacked Alcaraz	65c	308.34$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	188	68.6%129 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Korda	34c	249.49$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.8	9,286	44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L	-245.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Alcaraz	64c	187.5$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	643	50.2%323 W · 320 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51b1…e309backed Alcaraz	66c	168.3$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.08	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-2.5wins	-0.18per pick	61cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1248…8db1backed Alcaraz	65c	159.99$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	255	46.3%118 W · 137 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9175…bd29backed Korda	37c	158.38$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.54	84	46.4%39 W · 45 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dd…2297backed Alcaraz	65c	153.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	73	54.8%40 W · 33 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b75…6679backed Alcaraz	65c	153.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	123	50.4%62 W · 61 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec0…aeb9backed Korda	35c	152.85$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.35	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Alcaraz	66c	151.52$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	389	51.9%202 W · 187 L	-16.1wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1839…3ad3backed Alcaraz	66c	151.52$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b0…f879backed Alcaraz	66c	151.52$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	79	43%34 W · 45 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf26…319bbacked Alcaraz	66c	150$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x231f…646fbacked Alcaraz	69c	144.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	65cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Korda	33c	128.37$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.54	7,139	49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L	+109.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Alcaraz	63c	127.38$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.25	2,418	51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L	+10.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18ed…04cbbacked Alcaraz	63c	108.19$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.45	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed Alcaraz	64c	100$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	240	55%132 W · 108 L	-15.2wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe52e…ac6dbacked Korda	36c	100$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64	170	51.8%88 W · 82 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae9…facabacked Alcaraz	66c	80.27$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.98	198	56.1%111 W · 87 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Korda	36c	68$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.52	1,414	41.1%581 W · 833 L	-21.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Alcaraz	64c	68$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.52	253	55.7%141 W · 112 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Korda	35c	59.99$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.8	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc60b…d9f7backed Alcaraz	64c	49.46$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.89	354	39.8%141 W · 213 L	-15.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x319e…de42backed Alcaraz	66c	45.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	165	52.1%86 W · 79 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97c5…d03abacked Alcaraz	66c	43.94$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07bc…853bbacked Alcaraz	67c	37.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06b…10fabacked Alcaraz	66c	30.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	46	60.9%28 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bbf…f4e6backed Alcaraz	61c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	142	57%81 W · 61 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb3c…b4f5backed Korda	39c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.3	127	39.4%50 W · 77 L	-8.0wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdff6…0918backed Alcaraz	63c	30$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	498	57%284 W · 214 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76a3…2aa6backed Korda	43c	25.02$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.38	49	63.3%31 W · 18 L	+5.3wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd33f…159cbacked Alcaraz	63c	23.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	61cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa431…bd20backed Alcaraz	66c	20.64$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-2.5wins	-0.16per pick	59cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Alcaraz	56c	18.51$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	-3.8wins	-0.10per pick	24cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99e8…4577backed Alcaraz	72c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.15per pick	59cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Korda (+1.5)this page
Alcaraz vs. Korda: Match O/U 21.5Over won
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian KordaSebastian Korda won
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs KordaKorda won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Korda (+1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event