Tennis · resolved market
Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92da03ff45d07de6d65aaa8dc3b33847f009a9b243e9f9db78419413556801ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Under | 50c | 14,749$7,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,374.55 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 50c | 11,823$5,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,922.62 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…b3c7backed Over | 50c | 2,200$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -8.0wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -73%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 51c | 1,111$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.61 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Over | 50c | 1,006$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.18 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 50c | 596.94$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.47 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 490.19$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.1 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Under | 51c | 344$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.44 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Under | 52c | 291.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.85 | 584 | 53.1%310 W · 274 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Over | 50c | 232.92$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.46 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 51c | 195.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked Under | 51c | 175$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 153$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Under | 51c | 141$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Under | 51c | 128$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 48c | 122.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Over | 50c | 116.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Under | 51c | 99.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 389 | 52.2%203 W · 186 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 49c | 92.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Under | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 264 | 57.6%152 W · 112 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 52c | 86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 812 | 55.3%449 W · 363 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…bb56backed Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…0827backed Under | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…c160backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 50.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Over | 63c | 45.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…297bbacked Under | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 50c | 43.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 256 | 59%151 W · 105 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…182abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…94d6backed Over | 49c | 38.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…7ac1backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 152 | 61.2%93 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe7…24a0backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 40.5this page
- Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi won
- Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs ArnaldiArnaldi won
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)Arnaldi won
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5)Arnaldi won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.