Tennis · resolved market
Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe68889b05653dedf561f692af7fed623e5386ee7dec0b1b66f8c40d0590b7094
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.98 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…b85ebacked Over | 57c | 1,585$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.59 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 45c | 1,497$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.64 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 43c | 1,258$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.94 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 55c | 909.36$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Over | 42c | 862.07$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Under | 45c | 672.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 59c | 499.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Over | 55c | 449.94$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.47 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 65c | 443.34$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.34 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -9.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Over | 57c | 434.4$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 721 | 32%231 W · 490 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Under | 41c | 327.67$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 44c | 273.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Under | 45c | 259$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 584 | 53.1%310 W · 274 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 46c | 219.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked Under | 43c | 199$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Over | 69c | 196.45$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 168.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 157.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 55c | 150.91$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 302 | 58.6%177 W · 125 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Under | 43c | 145.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 105$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 59c | 105$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 191 | 51.8%99 W · 92 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 41c | 102.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Over | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 509 | 52.1%265 W · 244 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 45c | 96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 812 | 55.3%449 W · 363 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 819 | 33.1%271 W · 548 L | -30.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Over | 56c | 92.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 145 | 68.3%99 W · 46 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x055f…b363backed Over | 55c | 91.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…82b5backed Under | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 58c | 53.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 48.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 394 | 69%272 W · 122 L | +27.8wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 40c | 44.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…5c4dbacked Under | 45c | 42.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 45c | 39.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1b…18bcbacked Over | 62c | 39.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…5805backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…6215backed Under | 45c | 25.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 491 | 51.7%254 W · 237 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 58c | 18.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Over | 56c | 18.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Over | 71c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 38.5this page
- Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi won
- Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs ArnaldiArnaldi won
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)Arnaldi won
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5)Arnaldi won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.