Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x161ea78e3405bcef84ff1076bbf4850a95c99dde7cb243ee75e9f260adb45c84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnaldiof Tiafoe, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Arnaldi | 64c | 2,410$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.48 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Tiafoe | 35c | 2,314$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.82 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf38…848bbacked Arnaldi | 65c | 1,111$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.85 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…b3c7backed Tiafoe | 36c | 1,071$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.5 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -8.0wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -73%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…9cd0backed Tiafoe | 36c | 768.86$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.79 | 504 | 42.7%215 W · 289 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Arnaldi | 65c | 731.43$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.11 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Tiafoe | 36c | 663.88$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arnaldi | 62c | 340.25$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Arnaldi | 66c | 304.11$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Tiafoe | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee12…c850backed Arnaldi | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Tiafoe | 35c | 229.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Arnaldi | 65c | 184.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tiafoe | 34c | 157.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Arnaldi | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Tiafoe | 13c | 90.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Arnaldi | 70c | 88.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 347 | 48.1%167 W · 180 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Tiafoe | 36c | 86.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa68d…eab5backed Tiafoe | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Tiafoe | 55c | 52.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…91a9backed Arnaldi | 45c | 52.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Tiafoe | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 302 | 26.8%81 W · 221 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d40…b4ecbacked Arnaldi | 65c | 47.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Arnaldi | 78c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Arnaldi | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc251…a5d3backed Arnaldi | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)this page
- Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi won
- Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs ArnaldiArnaldi won
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5)Arnaldi won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.