TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,603

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac0a…f89ebacked Under 3.530c8,097$2,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,397.997146.5%33 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Over 3.570c7,134$5,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.757649.5%285 W · 291 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.530c5,043$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.724,08239.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L+93.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4c3…60d9backed Over 3.570c3,329$2,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.8814352.4%75 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Over 3.579c3,267$2,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.197755.8%43 W · 34 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21e8…b85ebacked Over 3.569c2,164$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.291668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked Over 3.571c2,096$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.815554.5%30 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Under 3.516c1,923$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.1926455.3%146 W · 118 L+37.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+25.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Under 3.531c1,613$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50042841.6%178 W · 250 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Under 3.528c1,141$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.9126131.4%82 W · 179 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Under 3.531c1,123$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.131,04750%524 W · 523 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Under 3.529c1,111$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.199843.9%43 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under 3.527c1,068$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.049,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74a3…3b73backed Over 3.571c982.27$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.866349.2%31 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over 3.571c920.85$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.8512552.8%66 W · 59 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked Over 3.567c792.62$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.414156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0e4…4ec7backed Over 3.570c699.99$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+54.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Under 3.531c606$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.717,10739.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L-17.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Under 3.527c551.22$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.831,14853%608 W · 540 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under 3.527c495.84$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.254,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5a…07b6backed Under 3.533c429$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5725440.6%103 W · 151 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca39…4ed7backed Over 3.570c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5714060.7%85 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a2…8613backed Under 3.530c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3191…e118backed Under 3.530c302.33$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.714829.1%43 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under 3.530c299.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901,10252.2%575 W · 527 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef85…2c38backed Over 3.568c250$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8512850.8%65 W · 63 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb15f…aaaebacked Under 3.533c231.4$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under 3.531c224.49$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5969244.4%307 W · 385 L+29.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6134…c8ccbacked Over 3.569c217.39$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3934957.6%201 W · 148 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba3e…4cbcbacked Over 3.570c214.39$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.393063.3%19 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Over 3.569c207.25$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2530258.6%177 W · 125 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c67…a479backed Over 3.569c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6225751.8%133 W · 124 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bca…2c1dbacked Over 3.570c186.16$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Under 3.531c149.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.587135.4%308 W · 563 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.527c149.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.437,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Over 3.566c149.71$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.973453%389 W · 345 L+36.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Under 3.531c146.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5758553%310 W · 275 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Over 3.572c141$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.481,72350.1%863 W · 860 L+29.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Under 3.528c141$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4813860.9%84 W · 54 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa743…c6c6backed Over 3.572c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.89825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed Over 3.573c137.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.815750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Under 3.534c135$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.944742.3%189 W · 258 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Under 3.530c132.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.918850%94 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e4…4d8cbacked Over 3.570c120.59$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.593969.2%27 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under 3.530c120$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc78d…0bbdbacked Under 3.531c107.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.214926.5%13 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44be…76b1backed Over 3.569c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.47153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under 3.529c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291,54249.2%759 W · 783 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Under 3.530c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3038741.1%159 W · 228 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under 3.532c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3236261.6%223 W · 139 L+40.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Under 3.527c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2723454.7%128 W · 106 L+10.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Under 3.532c93.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3081956.9%466 W · 353 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under 3.531c88.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1338947.3%184 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7bb…2753backed Over 3.569c86.96$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9625051.6%129 W · 121 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Under 3.531c81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1150351.5%259 W · 244 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Under 3.531c71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0182055%451 W · 369 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92e6…8222backed Over 3.573c70.55$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.053759.5%22 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Under 3.530c64.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.352152.2%272 W · 249 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed Over 3.569c58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.985466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over 3.573c57.6$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.556,51254.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L+289.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under 3.532c49.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1616050.6%81 W · 79 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00b8…0418backed Under 3.533c44.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.62540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7913…f3e2backed Over 3.568c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89b7…fd93backed Under 3.533c43.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.256346%29 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52ab…ecebbacked Over 3.570c42.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.867354.8%40 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05d…6ababacked Under 3.533c38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.542626.9%7 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-32.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdf38…1020backed Over 3.572c37.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.481546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62d6…54e8backed Over 3.569c37.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.682030%6 W · 14 L-4.8wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-46.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa538…1ee9backed Over 3.568c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.761637.5%6 W · 10 L-4.5wins-0.28per pick66cpaid-45.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under 3.531c34.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83,98745.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87d6…551abacked Over 3.569c31.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.888356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Over 3.569c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.326349%129 W · 134 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1488…409dbacked Over 3.569c28.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.794946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea85…0ef7backed Over 3.573c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d23…fcdfbacked Over 3.571c22.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.462263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0212…fee5backed Over 3.570c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.435453.7%29 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa639…7426backed Over 3.570c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613964.7%90 W · 49 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x879b…a5dfbacked Over 3.569c14.84$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.65552.7%29 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.