Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Arnaldi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e7d6a01916f7ec7be0a1aab71f8f6eb07e638db246decd34dadab70b5a2341f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnaldiof Tiafoe, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9943…b3c7backed Tiafoe | 52c | 2,087$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -8.0wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -73%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Tiafoe | 53c | 1,125$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Tiafoe | 42c | 1,113$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.68 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Arnaldi | 72c | 1,034$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.33 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arnaldi | 53c | 999.81$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.35 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Arnaldi | 57c | 768.54$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.55 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac1…3176backed Arnaldi | 52c | 694.55$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.55 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Tiafoe | 29c | 691.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Arnaldi | 51c | 690.31$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.21 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked Arnaldi | 79c | 652.08$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.36 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tiafoe | 37c | 610.91$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.71 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Arnaldi | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tiafoe | 41c | 585.45$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.66 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Arnaldi | 55c | 555$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.75 | 390 | 46.4%181 W · 209 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Arnaldi | 48c | 500$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.99 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2266…138abacked Tiafoe | 40c | 489.88$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…7f98backed Tiafoe | 56c | 418.86$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tiafoe | 54c | 405.86$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.16 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Arnaldi | 48c | 365.27$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.94 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…c54bbacked Tiafoe | 17c | 347.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Arnaldi | 48c | 344.09$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.42 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Tiafoe | 52c | 312.49$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.49 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Arnaldi | 51c | 306.07$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.98 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Arnaldi | 55c | 297.89$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.49 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Arnaldi | 52c | 291.53$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.61 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…1d03backed Arnaldi | 80c | 273.35$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 155 | 54.2%84 W · 71 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Arnaldi | 56c | 262$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.36 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Arnaldi | 80c | 228.76$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…0896backed Arnaldi | 54c | 207.72$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed Arnaldi | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…7deebacked Arnaldi | 64c | 191.47$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 332 | 53.6%178 W · 154 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e80…c709backed Arnaldi | 51c | 190.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.29 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…90ccbacked Tiafoe | 59c | 187.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…ad68backed Tiafoe | 26c | 179.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x585e…019fbacked Arnaldi | 57c | 175.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Arnaldi | 49c | 150.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3e…061cbacked Tiafoe | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Arnaldi | 56c | 143.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 181 | 58.6%106 W · 75 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Arnaldi | 54c | 126.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Arnaldi | 61c | 123.88$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Tiafoe | 25c | 114.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Tiafoe | 39c | 109.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 460 | 40%184 W · 276 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Arnaldi | 54c | 109.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Tiafoe | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Arnaldi | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tiafoe | 49c | 83.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Tiafoe | 48c | 82.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…fc07backed Tiafoe | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 150 | 46%69 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Tiafoe | 48c | 76.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Arnaldi | 59c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Tiafoe | 49c | 72.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Tiafoe | 35c | 69.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arnaldi | 65c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…5d44backed Arnaldi | 46c | 64.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Arnaldi | 49c | 60.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Tiafoe | 39c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Arnaldi | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf38…1020backed Tiafoe | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…6099backed Arnaldi | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…e058backed Arnaldi | 58c | 39.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Arnaldi | 65c | 35.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Arnaldi | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Arnaldi | 42c | 29.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Arnaldi | 73c | 23.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…755fbacked Arnaldi | 76c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Arnaldithis page
- Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi won
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)Arnaldi won
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5)Arnaldi won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.