Asian League · resolved market
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92fa6c618d32593fd64e01106ddf8102f987fe612e1762d2e78e0d9a38f99a3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Under | 1c | 5,005$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 38c | 800$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 784.94$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.85 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 13c | 342.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Under | 35c | 153.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 64c | 131.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 34c | 130.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 52c | 129$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 63c | 111.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Under | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 38c | 101.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Under | 42c | 95.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 35c | 92.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 34c | 88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 81.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 53c | 79.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 55c | 76.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 65c | 75.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 35c | 63.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 43.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 31c | 43.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 66c | 42.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed Over | 67c | 37.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…dc9bbacked Over | 57c | 33.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 65c | 29.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
- Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.