Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x930a4db5eea45e9d3d1748e751ca491338144fb5206135498e237650c7dcf8fa

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Inner Circle
Resolved: Jul 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $148,180
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $179,880

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,180 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2039…2e5fbacked Inner Circle	19c	10,526$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Inner Circle	15c	5,281$788 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$787.97	711	43%306 W · 405 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Inner Circle	7c	5,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	897	41.5%372 W · 525 L	+22.7wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Inner Circle	16c	4,440$729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$728.7	198	47%93 W · 105 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Inner Circle	13c	3,863$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.24	885	39.7%351 W · 534 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Inner Circle	18c	3,561$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.07	965	57.4%554 W · 411 L	+49.5wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Inner Circle	10c	3,500$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.05	696	44.5%310 W · 386 L	-3.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed Inner Circle	14c	3,126$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425	160	58.8%94 W · 66 L	+9.6wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed Inner Circle	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	71	2.8%2 W · 69 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-90.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Inner Circle	2c	3,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	400	14.8%59 W · 341 L	+11.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Inner Circle	15c	3,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.87	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-16.5wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Inner Circle	16c	2,853$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.76	319	36.7%117 W · 202 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x219a…f65bbacked Inner Circle	18c	2,785$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.98	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Inner Circle	19c	2,500$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.31	265	40.8%108 W · 157 L	-13.3wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Inner Circle	20c	2,495$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.64	421	45.4%191 W · 230 L	-11.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Inner Circle	14c	2,214$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.96	412	42.2%174 W · 238 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Inner Circle	16c	2,155$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.84	656	25.6%168 W · 488 L	+14.7wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Inner Circle	18c	2,008$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.69	351	51.3%180 W · 171 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Inner Circle	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	211	0.5%1 W · 210 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-99.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Inner Circle	13c	1,674$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.6	1,280	45%576 W · 704 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Inner Circle	17c	1,611$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.93	702	36.6%257 W · 445 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Inner Circle	17c	1,411$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.87	413	51.8%214 W · 199 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd0…08f6backed Inner Circle	17c	1,101$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	61	47.5%29 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc70f…ed45backed Inner Circle	2c	1,080$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Inner Circle	16c	1,073$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.76	935	46.4%434 W · 501 L	-15.7wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Inner Circle	17c	1,022$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.26	359	51.3%184 W · 175 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Inner Circle	20c	1,002$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.27	686	49.7%341 W · 345 L	+9.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Inner Circle	21c	1,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	1,036	47.2%489 W · 547 L	+15.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Inner Circle	17c	999.99$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	271	53.5%145 W · 126 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Inner Circle	8c	971.19$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.38	1,458	48.5%707 W · 751 L	+27.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked Inner Circle	18c	850.26$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	319	53.9%172 W · 147 L	+16.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc592…1ccebacked Inner Circle	21c	800$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	90	42.2%38 W · 52 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Inner Circle	12c	751.75$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.91	488	43.6%213 W · 275 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Inner Circle	18c	746.97$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.46	410	50.2%206 W · 204 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Inner Circle	16c	739.53$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.1	1,275	33.5%427 W · 848 L	-15.6wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Inner Circle	14c	554.95$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.69	894	40.3%360 W · 534 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11d1…3b0dbacked Inner Circle	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	49	10.2%5 W · 44 L	-5.6wins	-0.11per pick	22cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Inner Circle	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	515	44.9%231 W · 284 L	+40.9wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Team Yandex	78c	499.99$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	592	54.1%320 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6478…c969backed Inner Circle	16c	492$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.72	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3d…51b8backed Inner Circle	13c	459.38$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaa…a72ebacked Inner Circle	22c	458.86$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	36cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Inner Circle	14c	412.18$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.52	251	43.4%109 W · 142 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Team Yandex	78c	394.95$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.89	86	57%49 W · 37 L	+5.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Inner Circle	15c	389.94$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.89	107	53.3%57 W · 50 L	+8.3wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Inner Circle	14c	364.12$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.07	1,702	41.2%701 W · 1,001 L	-44.0wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked Inner Circle	13c	359.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.92	496	44.6%221 W · 275 L	+13.5wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Inner Circle	12c	358.33$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	204	42.2%86 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Inner Circle	14c	349.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	117	33.3%39 W · 78 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1318…0af2backed Inner Circle	16c	333$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.28	176	33.5%59 W · 117 L	+6.6wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47d…7967backed Inner Circle	16c	282$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.12	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Inner Circle	15c	270$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	669	47.1%315 W · 354 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Inner Circle	18c	254.2$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.51	395	50.1%198 W · 197 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Inner Circle	15c	242.29$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.59	1,155	47.8%552 W · 603 L	+29.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked Inner Circle	22c	227.27$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	220	31.8%70 W · 150 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8df9…c22bbacked Inner Circle	13c	223$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.99	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-38%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Inner Circle	15c	219.02$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.35	587	46.5%273 W · 314 L	-8.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc15f…223dbacked Inner Circle	13c	215.14$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	117	47.9%56 W · 61 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4455…8aa2backed Inner Circle	15c	202.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Inner Circle	14c	179$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.95	569	45.2%257 W · 312 L	-18.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Inner Circle	14c	174.9$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.23	192	49%94 W · 98 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Inner Circle	15c	167.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.77	589	43%253 W · 336 L	-25.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7898…f40dbacked Inner Circle	14c	162.05$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed Inner Circle	13c	149.93$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.49	136	45.6%62 W · 74 L	-7.9wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Inner Circle	14c	130.07$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.81	440	49.3%217 W · 223 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Inner Circle	14c	108.4$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.61	430	49.1%211 W · 219 L	+15.8wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Inner Circle	11c	103.07$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	966	45.1%436 W · 530 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Inner Circle	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	582	50.5%294 W · 288 L	+10.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b00…3d66backed Inner Circle	17c	97.51$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.65	109	35.8%39 W · 70 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Inner Circle	19c	87.52$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.41	211	58.3%123 W · 88 L	+8.4wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Inner Circle	16c	86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.76	645	47.8%308 W · 337 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked Team Yandex	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	546	59.7%326 W · 220 L	+6.9wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Inner Circle (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group DTeam Yandex won
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Inner Circle - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event