Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x935f3ff37238dbbf31321db61861c0553ac255edf4a7602d312f5c8832ed8c44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 65c | 266.87$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.04 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 42c | 237.49$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 64c | 170.13$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 37c | 154.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 419 | 33.2%139 W · 280 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 45c | 136$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 931 | 44.9%418 W · 513 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 122.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 55c | 112.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 31c | 111.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 107.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 1,078 | 36.5%393 W · 685 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 33c | 80.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 793 | 63.4%503 W · 290 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 36c | 77.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 74.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 38c | 73.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 35c | 58.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 57.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 36c | 55.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 54.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 48.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 47.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 33c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 56c | 45.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 47c | 42.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 152 | 28.3%43 W · 109 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 63c | 37.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 51c | 36.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 39c | 36.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 35.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 34.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 61c | 34.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…2766backed Yes | 39c | 34.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 33.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 28.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1,908 | 55.6%1,060 W · 848 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 27.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 25.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 23.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbd…0daebacked No | 49c | 23.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 66c | 22.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 68c | 20.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 18.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…f7a9backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.