Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Déifferdeng 03 vs. Ilves Tampere: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9360eb0dac08d5139042d12b0fa99e81bf7d9d75804195a106a14c5bd8083f95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 31c | 3,107$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.55 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 41c | 1,476$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.07 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…b017backed Over | 59c | 1,297$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…5c04backed Over | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a1…30d1backed Over | 33c | 1,115$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.96 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 63c | 788.4$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.17 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 45c | 726.98$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 649.13$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.7 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 59c | 512.9$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.99 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 41c | 407.6$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.48 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…95c6backed Over | 8c | 399.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 44c | 348.92$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.01 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 55c | 251.05$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.05 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 67c | 240.38$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 376 | 46.5%175 W · 201 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 51c | 172.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdf…ec9ebacked Over | 57c | 158.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 49c | 149.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 45c | 135.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 978 | 46.2%452 W · 526 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Over | 38c | 135$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -8.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 35c | 130.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…170cbacked Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 57c | 120.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…a02dbacked Over | 47c | 110.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Over | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d1…95eebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Over | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Over | 56c | 99.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…4094backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 43c | 88.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 58c | 79.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 1,117 | 35.8%400 W · 717 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 66c | 72.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 24c | 70.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 34c | 69.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +15.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 29c | 63.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 44c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 371 | 43.7%162 W · 209 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 45c | 46.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 37c | 45.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 371 | 46.4%172 W · 199 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 43c | 39.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 59c | 38.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…c118backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…6c60backed Over | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 56c | 28.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daa…ca69backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 66c | 26.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 57c | 24.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 23.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 482 | 49.8%240 W · 242 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…1c8cbacked Over | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Déifferdeng 03 vs. Ilves Tampere: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Déifferdeng 03 vs. Ilves Tampere: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Déifferdeng 03 vs. Ilves Tampere: FC Déifferdeng 03 O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Déifferdeng 03 vs. Ilves Tampere: O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Déifferdeng 03 vs. Ilves Tampere: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Déifferdeng 03 vs. Ilves Tampere: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Déifferdeng 03 (-1.5)Ilves Tampere won
- Spread: FC Déifferdeng 03 (-2.5)Ilves Tampere won
- Spread: Ilves Tampere (-1.5)FC Déifferdeng 03 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.