Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93901caf1c2584d078b657db0cd5e93249b9fdbed0a4a0e475738c8d5139e972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 21c | 904.06$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.28 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 459.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.98 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 66c | 415.98$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.95 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 379.66$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.33 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 31c | 375.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.95 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 77c | 333.66$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.05 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 282.95$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 277.5$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 41c | 179.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 175.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 170.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 164.63$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 147.96$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.05 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 22c | 147.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 142.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 142.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 25c | 129.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 122.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 29c | 121.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 121.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 120.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 117.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 99.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 95.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 24c | 82.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 73.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 50c | 71.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 70.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 24c | 67.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 17c | 63.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 25c | 59.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 58.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 23c | 57.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 57.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 42c | 56.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 62c | 52.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 46c | 43.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 33c | 41.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 30c | 40.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 76c | 39.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 74c | 38.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e03…bb77backed No | 71c | 33.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 43c | 28.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 58c | 25.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…9b38backed No | 77c | 23.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…5ae7backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 77c | 21.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb073…54fbbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 57c | 19.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…e17fbacked No | 76c | 19.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 74c | 19.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 17.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef2…d233backed No | 76c | 16.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 13.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.