Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0398b15833bae7519ccb9d2d5e46c3cb029026c0d8a0c6117db7ed6f9fed63d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeae8…7f85backed Yes | 2c | 7,294$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 598.34$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 21c | 303.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 26c | 301$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 191.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 190.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 180.93$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 28c | 179.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 177.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 146.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 123.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 121.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 14c | 108.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 107$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 103.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 77c | 97.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 90.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 18c | 89.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 77.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…266cbacked No | 78c | 69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 67.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 66.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 62.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 48.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 75c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 39.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 71c | 22.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 74c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 16.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.