Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15dc7626fca56bab34879a6afd408e281ae30366334e2e76e5dde329ea2273c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 24c | 843.95$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.55 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 418.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 20c | 325.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaad…25c9backed Yes | 7c | 276.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…9e3dbacked Yes | 8c | 222.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 25c | 199.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed No | 79c | 178.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 16c | 162.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 146.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 134.04$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 131.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 123.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 121.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 116.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 99.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 22c | 91.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 84.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…efabbacked No | 79c | 70.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 68.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 65.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 58.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 56.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 54.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…5d6dbacked Yes | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 40.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 80c | 40.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5048…3bc4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…f092backed No | 75c | 37.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 80c | 35.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 35.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa53…02a8backed No | 76c | 32.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 75c | 29.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 28.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 76c | 28.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…4eebbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 76c | 25.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 23.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 17.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…c08dbacked No | 76c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.