NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9393e8f7f5103558cb7b61e752d1d2b86dbc4d841e1ea8db73d6a19d7e655676
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 4,786$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 52c | 3,579$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.85 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 2,285$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…15fabacked Under | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0fc6backed Under | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…cecebacked Under | 53c | 949.15$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b5…e61fbacked Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 936.98$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.86 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 48c | 372.8$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.86 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 50c | 305$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 577 | 60.5%349 W · 228 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0add…4c8ebacked Under | 51c | 190.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 188.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Under | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 51c | 149.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 34c | 113.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Over | 48c | 96.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…29f7backed Over | 48c | 73.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 52c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…7e00backed Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5)Celtics won
- Knicks vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.