NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53a226f64171f36e295fef5c387f0ce925c5a4f65ccc08e9e85648a0beb5bbf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Knicks, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1015…c873backed Knicks | 46c | 1,098$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.32 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 54c | 1,054$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Knicks | 46c | 822.86$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.44 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Celtics | 54c | 669.39$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.92 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Celtics | 56c | 287.48$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.76 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Celtics | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Celtics | 56c | 179$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Knicks | 45c | 155.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Celtics | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb2…3bb5backed Celtics | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Celtics | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc7…b89bbacked Celtics | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…0a2abacked Celtics | 56c | 86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa2…1531backed Knicks | 44c | 85.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Knicks | 44c | 78.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467f…d952backed Knicks | 46c | 78.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Celtics | 55c | 70.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Celtics | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Knicks | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Knicks | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Celtics | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…7160backed Celtics | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Knicks | 44c | 27.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Celtics | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Celtics | 56c | 22.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5)Celtics won
- Knicks vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.