NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf0861a5038a10de8bef2b7e9d0d764b148b55b45f5ce47817cc941a59d0b794
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x185c…fa2fbacked Over | 52c | 16,000$8,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,680 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…8e43backed Under | 48c | 16,000$7,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,680 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 6,675$3,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,065.28 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Over | 54c | 3,704$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.7 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.06 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b5…e61fbacked Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Under | 48c | 524.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 473$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.83 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 53c | 431.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.22 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 54c | 249.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5e…e87cbacked Under | 50c | 210$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 145$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Under | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 123.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…c791backed Under | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6886…7db9backed Over | 54c | 99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Under | 34c | 95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 52c | 83.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Over | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 57c | 55.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f96…1fb1backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f01…c574backed Under | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…2a2abacked Over | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…4165backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…9dedbacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 54c | 23.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5)Celtics won
- Knicks vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.