NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc86f8cf71b13c4a7c1bb24bb6950ae0ebcb3de1d9a4c2bb1384caee7789c9314
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Celtics | 47c | 5,323$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.4 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks | 53c | 3,258$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.63 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…1a39backed Knicks | 50c | 2,393$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.5 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Celtics | 47c | 2,210$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.23 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 50c | 1,736$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…498abacked Knicks | 54c | 1,184$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Knicks | 54c | 1,129$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.48 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Knicks | 53c | 1,074$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.99 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Celtics | 47c | 760$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.8 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Knicks | 54c | 731.48$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Celtics | 46c | 406.89$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.72 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Knicks | 52c | 270.19$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Celtics | 48c | 221$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Celtics | 47c | 217.67$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Celtics | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…1633backed Knicks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…d2ecbacked Knicks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Celtics | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked Knicks | 57c | 112.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Knicks | 52c | 111.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Knicks | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…8498backed Celtics | 48c | 101$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Knicks | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Celtics | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Celtics | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Knicks | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Knicks | 33c | 67.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Celtics | 78c | 57.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Knicks | 52c | 47.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Knicks | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Knicks | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Celtics | 47c | 31.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Knicks | 53c | 22.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…7e00backed Knicks | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Celtics | 77c | 17.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5)Celtics won
- Knicks vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.