TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,899
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,899 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c23…ed23backed Under72c3,449$2,483 inLost-$2,483.123966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over28c2,936$822 inWon+$2,114.1511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Under53c799.98$424 inLost-$423.9925249.2%124 W · 128 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over47c638.29$300 inWon+$338.292,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under56c330.22$184 inLost-$183.6712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over28c259.87$72 inWon+$188.193,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over28c243.26$68 inWon+$175.38,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over45c228$103 inWon+$124.96,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over47c189.15$89 inWon+$100.251,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over58c142.51$83 inWon+$59.258,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over76c87.43$67 inWon+$20.729,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over38c81$31 inWon+$50.368,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under51c77.75$40 inLost-$39.955,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Under42c66.84$28 inLost-$28.0788046.4%408 W · 472 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Under54c65$35 inLost-$35.3523244%102 W · 130 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Under70c35.6$25 inLost-$25.041,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05bc…f3ebbacked Under53c19.02$10 inLost-$10.083046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed Under74c13.83$10 inLost-$10.2311553%61 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.