MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x897f763d6dba921492d4ba1545bf92a1ac47aac14a949b264d8471ce6fa5271b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Detroit Tigers | 40c | 6,395$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,582.79 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 4,814$2,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 54c | 4,810$2,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 2,664$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.05 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 2,021$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 1,739$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.61 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 1,697$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 1,572$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.15 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 1,152$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.57 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…25f9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 1,006$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.83 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…eaf1backed Detroit Tigers | 15c | 678.75$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 547.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 508.39$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.24 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 412.13$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.67 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 388.76$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Detroit Tigers | 33c | 351$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…46e6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 185.62$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 164.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 77c | 128.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…47f6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers | 45c | 99.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Detroit Tigers | 45c | 64.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Detroit Tigers | 36c | 54.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 44.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 42.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Detroit Tigers | 47c | 41.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…85c6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…e409backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 31.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 29.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 20.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 19.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…88a5backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 18.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 13.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 14.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 15.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 16.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-5.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.