MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f49c3e2004850915b9fe00084a72aab0ef7468687c6b38900aff1a2968bd625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 4,484$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,384.21 | 4,555 | 49.2%2,239 W · 2,316 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 53c | 2,925$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.44 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 54c | 1,547$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.92 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 45c | 1,345$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.56 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 1,001$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.54 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 1,000$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.01 | 2,418 | 48.6%1,174 W · 1,244 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 48c | 830$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.6 | 1,926 | 53.4%1,029 W · 897 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 47c | 774.82$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.94 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 53c | 650$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.5 | 2,315 | 52.5%1,216 W · 1,099 L | +25.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 13c | 552.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 52c | 405.56$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.57 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 391.09$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 301.78$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.98 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 57c | 290.44$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.89 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 234.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.19 | 4,534 | 49%2,220 W · 2,314 L | -41.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 42c | 195$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 55c | 190.91$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 168.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 64c | 159.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 1,452 | 49.9%725 W · 727 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 57c | 149.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 51c | 139.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Under | 48c | 104.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 43c | 103$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 43c | 76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1,738 | 50.4%876 W · 862 L | +57.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…c435backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 42c | 57.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 43.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 53c | 37.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 61.3%76 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 41c | 35.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 44c | 34.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 54c | 26.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 217 | 50.7%110 W · 107 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 46c | 24.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 55c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 55c | 19.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 814 | 55%448 W · 366 L | +24.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 13.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 14.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 15.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 16.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-5.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.