MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e624d9bd113d66339420ec4f10d0dd58f3f21bb76f447a9028c6b1de3d959a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Over | 21c | 1,721$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.44 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 34c | 1,327$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 2c | 968.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 44c | 685.77$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.74 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 666.69$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 46c | 615.08$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.21 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 79c | 420$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…cb4ebacked Under | 45c | 345.4$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 79c | 254.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.44 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 79c | 194.94$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 67c | 179.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 70c | 178.7$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 48c | 167$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 163.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 45c | 114.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 21c | 114.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 21c | 102.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 27c | 93.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 87.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…85c6backed Under | 56c | 80.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 35c | 62.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 49c | 61.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Over | 59c | 53.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 26.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 79c | 14.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 13.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 14.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 15.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 16.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-5.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.