MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x441edfd000e2bad06d4617b0282075c712300ff97a73d3a198c813c0a4732fda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 18,308$10,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,172.1 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 11,822$5,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,283.45 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 4,102$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 2,326$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 1,194$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.73 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 995.37$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 832.92$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.27 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 449$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.37 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 428.5$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.25 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 388.02$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 286.59$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.1 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…47f6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 249.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 161.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Detroit Tigers | 68c | 154$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 151$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 150.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 138.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 126.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 125.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 124.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 111.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 107.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 60.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 25c | 58.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 57.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 53.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Detroit Tigers | 59c | 50.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Detroit Tigers | 43c | 45.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…c130backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 45.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 43.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 36.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Detroit Tigers | 48c | 32.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 31.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 29.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…33bdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 23.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 23.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Detroit Tigers | 57c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Detroit Tigers | 54c | 19.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 13.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 14.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 15.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 16.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-5.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.