Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: LYON vs. 100 Thieves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93a20429efe1e93bffebc2d073f5fe95e611a3d1f87d4b4bd227bdf5fb93ff9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof LYON, 100 Thieves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed LYON | 50c | 73,794$36,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,643.04 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked 100 Thieves | 50c | 35,000$17,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,500 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed 100 Thieves | 55c | 27,235$15,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,223.49 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 11,110$5,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,555 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed LYON | 24c | 7,044$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.9 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…18f9backed LYON | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed 100 Thieves | 75c | 3,970$2,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.74 | 273 | 46.9%128 W · 145 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed LYON | 41c | 3,949$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed 100 Thieves | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed 100 Thieves | 51c | 2,534$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.8 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…3386backed 100 Thieves | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed 100 Thieves | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.1 | 635 | 46.6%296 W · 339 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 1,993$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.12 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x644f…8bc9backed LYON | 26c | 1,920$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked 100 Thieves | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked 100 Thieves | 53c | 959.08$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed LYON | 37c | 835.99$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.56 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…4bcabacked LYON | 40c | 799.99$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked 100 Thieves | 57c | 699.99$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.37 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked LYON | 15c | 577.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d8…655abacked 100 Thieves | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked 100 Thieves | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 109 | 34.9%38 W · 71 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4b…aba8backed LYON | 15c | 335.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed 100 Thieves | 77c | 294.9$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 1,241 | 52.7%654 W · 587 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed LYON | 34c | 294.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…75b3backed LYON | 47c | 220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed 100 Thieves | 65c | 214.41$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 504 | 55%277 W · 227 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed 100 Thieves | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 274 | 52.2%143 W · 131 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked LYON | 27c | 183.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed LYON | 34c | 175.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 538 | 29.4%158 W · 380 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked LYON | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,356 | 51.1%693 W · 663 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked 100 Thieves | 62c | 142.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…d8b7backed 100 Thieves | 59c | 130$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed 100 Thieves | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed 100 Thieves | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…d707backed LYON | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed 100 Thieves | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked LYON | 27c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a6…f55fbacked 100 Thieves | 55c | 89.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…d552backed 100 Thieves | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 386 | 24.4%94 W · 292 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed LYON | 45c | 76.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed 100 Thieves | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed LYON | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed LYON | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked LYON | 49c | 33.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,155 | 68.1%786 W · 369 L | +35.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…b890backed 100 Thieves | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.