Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94300019ee378579d8440e3af64e3d8c8983bf17ce6d7a47052509f66feda4ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 38c | 899.24$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 262.46$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 62c | 235.61$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 26c | 231.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 27c | 204.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 27c | 198.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 24c | 193$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed Yes | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 42c | 180.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 35c | 153.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5645…5d21backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 72c | 127.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 107$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 73c | 102$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 97.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 63c | 92.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 78c | 89.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 73c | 80.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 65.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 77c | 64.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 73c | 63.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 64c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 69c | 61.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 75c | 51.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 24c | 50.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 78c | 50.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 50.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 21c | 49.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 30c | 47.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 43c | 46.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 33c | 46.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 80c | 40.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 75c | 40.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 30c | 36.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 66c | 35.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 33c | 34.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed Yes | 68c | 34.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…60ebbacked No | 41c | 29.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 76c | 26.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…eea4backed Yes | 73c | 24.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…89d3backed Yes | 62c | 24.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 44c | 23.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed Yes | 53c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 60c | 21.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d3…7badbacked Yes | 66c | 21.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed Yes | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 65c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…6befbacked Yes | 67c | 17.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.