South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x945eb35bce469ffc7cd8dcdbb004c436f8ab2d702ae67c92b78d980b7e5202a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 9c | 2,743$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.27 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 24c | 2,083$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.92 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 1c | 2,004$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 19c | 1,222$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.7 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 1,015$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.43 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 10c | 553.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked Under | 72c | 333.33$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.04 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 5c | 331.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…85b9backed Over | 37c | 196.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 30c | 183.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed Under | 57c | 174.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 34c | 167.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 17c | 145.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 24c | 129$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 42c | 118.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…500bbacked Over | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Over | 46c | 107.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 156 | 25.6%40 W · 116 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x704b…08b7backed Under | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 79.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 64c | 73.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 23c | 68.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…2bc4backed Under | 78c | 58.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 74c | 46.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Over | 45c | 39.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 43c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 76c | 36.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…e39dbacked Over | 42c | 35.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Under | 61c | 32.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Under | 65c | 30.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac6…f11dbacked Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 42c | 25.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…a33fbacked Under | 60c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9940…59b3backed Under | 66c | 17.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 77c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 72c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 73c | 14.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 60 | 78.3%47 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 80cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 3.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: CA Mineiro O/U 0.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 0.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 4.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: SE Palmeiras O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)CA Mineiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.