South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72640fbbebb4cb73e7258bf27891781c7dc77ad359563e76f6d7970ecde51649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA Mineiroof SE Palmeiras, CA Mineiro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc1…bdd8backed CA Mineiro | 68c | 14,576$9,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,604.22 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed SE Palmeiras | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed SE Palmeiras | 26c | 4,651$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.06 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed SE Palmeiras | 32c | 3,997$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.12 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed SE Palmeiras | 28c | 3,000$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.99 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CA Mineiro | 73c | 2,810$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.66 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…a6babacked SE Palmeiras | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed SE Palmeiras | 20c | 755$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed CA Mineiro | 67c | 750$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed SE Palmeiras | 31c | 574$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.94 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed SE Palmeiras | 25c | 467.15$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed SE Palmeiras | 31c | 302$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed CA Mineiro | 73c | 301.79$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked SE Palmeiras | 9c | 217.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed SE Palmeiras | 31c | 156$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed CA Mineiro | 78c | 153.66$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed SE Palmeiras | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed SE Palmeiras | 34c | 146.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed SE Palmeiras | 31c | 144$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked SE Palmeiras | 30c | 82.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed CA Mineiro | 70c | 71.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked SE Palmeiras | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed SE Palmeiras | 30c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked SE Palmeiras | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…fc83backed CA Mineiro | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed SE Palmeiras | 31c | 59.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed CA Mineiro | 74c | 57.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed SE Palmeiras | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed SE Palmeiras | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed SE Palmeiras | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed CA Mineiro | 76c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed CA Mineiro | 75c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed CA Mineiro | 71c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: CA Mineiro O/U 0.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 0.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 4.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro: SE Palmeiras O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)CA Mineiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.