South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9461caa1c2a647d86240156d9c570b545f22ac23f1c2cb9cdcfeba9f84adca87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 29c | 5,383$1,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.07 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 57c | 3,734$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.35 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 27c | 3,603$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.68 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 41c | 2,945$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.04 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11cd…e5a8backed Yes | 77c | 1,828$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 63c | 1,667$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.07 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 23c | 835.79$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.4 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 19c | 786.87$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.74 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 78c | 713.65$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.37 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Yes | 67c | 515.47$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.85 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 72c | 446.59$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.34 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Yes | 20c | 378.55$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.49 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 65c | 238.05$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 33c | 231.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 28c | 199.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 180.92$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.62 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 29c | 180.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.22 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 78c | 160$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 78c | 147.54$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed No | 30c | 142.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 10c | 106.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 43c | 102.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b9…f9ebbacked Yes | 69c | 97.22$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 47c | 96.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 61c | 85.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 62c | 73.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 62c | 70.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 35c | 70.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 80c | 58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 27c | 57.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 76c | 49.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Yes | 42c | 47.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 61c | 34.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 49c | 34.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 77c | 32.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 76c | 19.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…2f71backed No | 72c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed No | 72c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed No | 77c | 14.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked No | 72c | 14.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…8cd9backed Yes | 76c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-08-17?No won
- Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-08-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.